CIPA adjusts 2006 forecast
Michael R. Tomkins, The Imaging Resource
(Monday, September 18, 2006 - 13:44 EDT)
Japan's Camera & Imaging Products Association (CIPA) has revised its 2006 - 2008 forecasts of camera shipments, based on figures that show digital camera sales growth continuing at levels higher than had been expected.
Previously, CIPA had forecast year on year growth of just 4% for 2006, but after growth in the first seven months from Jan - Jun '06 came in at an impressive 20.3%, CIPA has now revised its full-year estimate to 12.7% growth. Fixed-lens digicams had been expected to see a very modest 2.8% growth in '06, but this figure has now been raised to 12.1%, while forecast DSLR growth has been pulled back just slightly from an expected 23.4%, to 21.3% year on year. In the period Jan - Jun, the DSLR market showed growth of 19.3%, while fixed-lens camera shipments climbed 20.4%. The market for 35mm lenses (which can generally be used with film or digital SLRs, but aren't optimised for the latter) are receding, with total volume down to 89% of what was seen in the first seven months of 2005. Lenses offered exclusively for digital SLRs saw a whopping 38.8% growth, however, leaving the combined lens market with 12.8% growth overall.
Based on CIPA's new projections, the European market is expected to lead the way for DSLR growth, with an expected gain of 28.6% over last year, while the Japanese domestic market will grow 9.9%, North America will climb 19.2%, and other markets will see a combined 19.9% gain. Fixed-lens cameras will see 16.1% growth in North America for '06, while Europe and Japan will see less growth in this area with 7.8% and 2.6% growth respectively; other markets will show the strongest growth for fixed-lens cameras, at 20.0%.
For 2007, CIPA has raised its projected total growth for the digicam market from 2.0% to 4.3%, with DSLRs expected to show 12.6% growth vs. just 3.7% for the fixed-lens digital cameras. 2008 was originally expected to see things almost flat with just 0.8% growth overall, but is now projected to show 2.2% growth. 2008 DSLR sales growth is predicted as 6.7%, while fixed-lens digicam growth in '08 is expected to be just 1.9% worldwide.
The film camera market continues to dry up significantly ahead of projections, meanwhile. CIPA had been projecting the total silver halide market to shrink by 38% this year, but in fact the first seven months of 2006 saw a 67.1% drop - leading to a projected fall of 62% by the end of the year.
Original Source Press Release:
Forecast of 2006-2008 Shipments of various types of Cameras and related Goods (Revision)
In August 2006 the Camera & Imaging Products Association (CIPA, President: Michio Kariya) reviewed the January 31, 2006 forecast of 2006-2008 shipments of various types of cameras and related goods. The revised forecast is as per the attached appendix.
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- Shipment forecast for digital cameras
Total shipment of digital cameras increased by a strong 20.3% in volume from the previous year during the first 7 months of 2006. Domestic shipment of digital cameras with built-in lenses increased 7.9%, and export of digital cameras with built-in lenses increased 22.5%.
As a result, though the estimation at the beginning of the year predicted that the total shipment of digital cameras in 2006 would rise 4.0% from the previous year, a total of 72.97 million digital cameras are now forecast to be shipped in 2006, up 12.7% from the previous year.
- Shipment forecast for silver halide cameras
At the beginning of this year, we predicted a year-on-year decrease of 38.0% in volume in the total 2006 shipment of silver halide cameras. However, shipment decreased 67.1% from the previous year during the first 7 months of 2006, and a significant downward trend was observed in both domestic and foreign markets.
CAMERA & IMAGING PRODUCTS ASSOCIATION（CIPA）
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